Potential Tropical Storm Sara Spaghetti Models Show Impact on Florida

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) began issuing advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen—which is expected to soon strengthen into Tropical Storm Sara—on Wednesday afternoon, as some forecast models anticipate a storm path toward Florida.
Meteorologists have been tracking the storm for the past week, with its chances of forming increasing gradually. Tropical Storm Sara is expected to form by Thursday morning, becoming a hurricane by Friday night and a major hurricane by Saturday night, AccuWeather said.
Most spaghetti models—or computer models illustrating potential storm paths—expect the storm to cut through the Yucatán Peninsula and then loop around into the Gulf of Mexico. From there, a large area of high pressure over the Southeastern U.S. will determine the storm’s path, depending on if the high pressure weakens or strengthens, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek.
Several spaghetti models anticipate the storm then taking aim at Florida, with landfall in the Panhandle or the Big Bend region, though DaSilva said he believes the biggest threat will be to South Florida.
In the Caribbean, environmental conditions are primed for storm development.
“There’s not much to stop this from potentially becoming a major hurricane,” DaSilva said. “That is certainly in the cards.”
However, western Gulf states like Texas and Louisiana have “next to no risk” with this storm, DaSilva said.
Other spaghetti models don’t anticipate a Florida landfall at all and show the storm looping toward Cuba. Other models show the storm taking a hard, northward turn and cutting across Cuba near where Hurricane Rafael made landfall earlier this month and then moving toward Florida.
Meanwhile, the NHC said it’s too soon to know if the storm will have an impact on Florida or Cuba. However, life-threatening impacts are expected in Central America later this week.
“Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua,” the NHC forecast said.
It continued: “The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of that area.”
The system will then likely approach Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula early next week, either at or near hurricane strength, the NHC said. There, it will bring the threat of storm surge and damaging winds.
AccuWeather meteorologists warned that rapid intensification is expected with Sara as it quickly strengthens later this week.