Did Utah State just move closer to joining the Pac-12?

Last week, Action Network’s Brett McMurphy reported that while the Pac-12 Conference was exploring adding schools from the American Athletic Conference, if it ended up not doing so, UNLV and Utah State of the Mountain West Conference would be the league’s “top expansion targets.”
Well, plenty happened on that front Monday.
On Monday afternoon, Yahoo’s Ross Dellenger first reported that Memphis, Tulane, USF and UTSA were planning to announce that they are staying in the AAC, and the schools formally announced their intention a short time later.
Later Monday, McMurphy reported that Gonzaga is leaving the West Coast Conference to join the Pac-12. Dellenger reported that the Pac-12 has been in “serious discussion” with Gonzaga but that a move is not finalized, and ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura and The Athletic’s Chris Vannini reported similarly.
Dellenger, meanwhile, reported that Air Force has committed to stay in the Mountain West.
Regarding the AAC news, this would seemingly mean that Utah State has moved many spots up the list of potential expansion candidates for the Pac-12, which added Mountain West schools Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State earlier this month.
That came after the conference was gutted in 2023, leaving only Oregon State and Washington State as members.
McMurphy reported last week that, “UNLV and Utah State both have gained momentum due to their competitive, revenue and viewership stats being on the rise,” according to his sources.
Perhaps as a precursor to Monday’s announcement by the four AAC schools, ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported that “The Mountain West is amid a significant push to keep its core of eight schools together,” and as part of that, the conference is planning on giving each of those schools large, one-time payments of guaranteed money.
Thamel reported that the money would come from the “more than $120 million” in exit fees it will be getting from Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State.
“The Mountain West is being aggressive in guaranteeing money, knowing that any decision about the Pac-12 would be based on projected numbers,” Thamel reported. “Part of the MWC pitch is that they’d guarantee no schools take a step back in media distribution, and they’d avoid exit fees.”
Dellenger additionally reported that the Mountain West set a deadline of Monday for schools to agree to a new media grant of rights. It is not clear how much that one-time payment plus current or future media rights related to a new grant of rights would compare with media rights money a school would get from the Pac-12.
Regarding Gonzaga, it has long been a men’s basketball powerhouse but does not sponsor football. The school has flirted for years with joining a bigger conference, including as late as last year when it and the Big 12 Conference were eyeing a marriage, although that fell through.
Should Gonzaga join the Pac-12, it would be the strongest men’s basketball program, while San Diego State has also been excellent in recent years and Boise State and Colorado State are on the rise.
As for Air Force, it has been talked about as a potential addition for the Pac-12 as well as the AAC with the AAC potentially bringing all of the service academies into one conference.